Trade Balance

Who: Department of Commerce

When: Around the 20th of the month for data two months prior

What: The international trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may slow domestic growth. Exports boost domestic production.

Why: The volatility in the monthly trade balance can play an important role in forecasts of GDP. Net exports are a relatively volatile component of GDP, and the trade report provides early clues to the net export performance each quarter. There are many complex links between the Trade Balance and MBS markets, and some work in opposite directions, so the net effect is difficult to predict. For this reason, the data rarely produces much movement in MBS prices.