Colorado Home Mortgage Banking

Mortgage Backed Securities were sold off in mass numbers overnight in the foreign markets, sending today’s opening numbers right into the cellar.  Colorado Home Loan rates started the morning off about .25% higher then yesterdays closing Colorado Home Loan rates.  We are now seeing Colorado Home Loan rates hitting 6.0% which has me a bit concerned on where rates will finally cap at, before we begin to see some relief.  Its getting harder and harder to tell people to floating especially since rates continue to rise.  With that said we should keep one thing in mind, and that is as much as rates have gone up over the last 3 weeks rates still remain right around 6.0%.  6.0% Colorado Home Loan rates are still better then our 12 month peak points and continues to be a respectable rate.  I don’t want to alarm anyone right now it just appears that the market is experiencing instability.  With this instability investors are acting on fear that the Mortgage Backed Securities market will some how loose its current credibility.  The fear should soon dissipate from Mortgage Backed Securities and confidence to buy will return as investors begin seeing losses within the equities markets.   We need to remember that the market will respond accordingly to the economic data being released, even though we are not seeing it reflected in the price of Colorado Home Loan rates today.  Historically Mortgage Backed Securities have had their movements primarily dictated by economic reports released through out the month.   This does not appear to be the case now we what we are seeing in today’s market is the exception.  We will get back to our old predictability soon, especially as we get more and more negative economic data.  As expected, Consumer Sentiment came in at a 30 year low, hitting the lowest Consumer Sentiment reading since 1982.  Consumer Confidence is expected to come in just as low, which will be the push we need to have Colorado Home Loan rates moving back into the right direction.  What is disappointing about what we are seeing in the market is that these reports should have moved rates considerably lower today, but instead will only stop Colorado Home Loan rates from increasing.  We should see the market find the stability it needs over the next week or so at which point we should see rates begin to fall.  Stay tuned and call me with any of your Colorado Home Loan Rate questions.

Investors in the Mortgage Backed Securities market continue to amaze me.  Today Durable Goods came in weaker then expected which should translate to positive movement for Colorado Mortgage Rates.  So far today Colorado Mortgage rates have gone up about .125% to .25% the reasoning still baffles me a bit.  We had three Economic reports coming in Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, and Home sales.  Colorado Mortgage rates will certainly respond to the data released in each of these reports.  Durable Goods came in below expectation and should have a positive impact on Colorado Mortgage rates.  Home sales came in far below expectations which again should be good for Colorado Mortgage rates.   Finally, Jobless Claims did come in better then expected, but this report does not typically move the Mortgage Backed Securities market that much.  This will drive some of the movement in the Colorado Mortgage market, but overall the news should be positive for Colorado Mortgage rates.  So the question is why has Colorado Mortgage rates not improved.  The only reasonable explanation to me has been the recent activity seen in reports about corporate profits.  Ford Motor Company posted a profit which exceeded expectations.  Ford Motor Company continues to be a market leader and positive profit news will be positive news for stocks.  Though Ford exceeded expectations we continue to see other companies reporting their expectations far below investor’s projections.  In short the Ford profit increase, though good for stocks, will not be good enough to make up for all the other companies.  We may still be feeling some of the effects of yesterday’s news on the 1Q 1.7 Billion Dollar loss from Ambac.  The reason this is so significant is that Ambac is an insurance company backing current Mortgage Backed Securities in the event of default.  If a company like this has issues it rocks the Colorado Mortgage sector to its core.  Fear spreads like wild fire and investors begin to react.  Investors tend to come back in line after a few days when stock investments begin to loose there appeal.  This happens as more and more companies report negative profit gains for the 1Q.  We should see these things come back in line soon.  We are still at a high point and my Recommendation remains as a FLOAT, the issue we are facing in the economy will become headline news again and rates should start dropping again.  The good news now will be the lack of Economic data over the next 6 days and investors begin to speculate on what will be reported on April 30th.  April 30th will be the deciding factor for the month of April, and will be what makes or breaks Colorado Mortgage rates for the month.  If it is getting to hot and you want to cut losses and Lock your Colorado Mortgage Rate, we will more then likely be locking you in at 5.875%.  Most of my clients were promised 6.0% or below and my goal continues to be 5.5%, but the likely hood of 5.5% becomes tougher and tough each day.  The Colorado Mortgage market over the next 45 days indicates that locking in at 5.75% should be our goal and a Lock recommendation will be made at 5.75%.  If your Colorado Mortgage closing date is beyond the 45 days we can still hold out for 5.5%.  Let’s use caution, but so far the data still indicates improvements are on the horizon.  Stay tuned and please call me with your Colorado Mortgage needs.

Retail Home Sales data came out today and so far the information has not surprised anyone.  Retail Home sales are definitely at a low point and the market continues to responded as expected.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates have improved for the third straight day.  Now it is up to the lenders to release Colorado Home Mortgage rates that fall more in line with what the market is showing.  I have had a lot of questions asking me how the market prices out Colorado Home Mortgage loans, versus what the borrower actually pays for their Colorado Home Mortgage.  There are two Colorado Home Mortgage markets to obtain a loan from, Retail markets and Wholesale markets.  Both these markets work the same as it relates to the type of Colorado Home Mortgage loan, the only difference is availability and price.  Retail organizations like Wells Fargo direct, First Horizon, and any other local banking institution only offer portfolios tied to their individual lending criteria.  They will also charge a premium of 2% before any origination cost are added.  This premium is added to the 5.5% coupon rate found on the Mortgage Backed Securities market.  So in short if the 5.5% coupon market is selling at 100.00, which represents the coupons original price.  When this occurs the coupon is said to be selling at PAR.  Your Colorado Home Mortgage Rate would be 5.5% with no one in the business making any premium unless origination and other charges are added to the loan.  Regardless of what origination or fees are charged the retail side of the house will always charge a premium that comes from the rate.  In order to get the 5.5% coupon bond at 102.00 retailers will charge a higher rate to obtain the 2% premium Retail shops price in to sell their Colorado Home Mortgage rate.  Retailers will offer you a Colorado Home Mortgage rate around 6.25% or 6.5% to obtain this premium.   In the Whole sale side (which I am a part of:-)) you will get the rates directly from the Mortgage Backed Securities market.  The Lender offering the Mortgage Backed Security will still put a premium on these Colorado Home mortgage rate, but instead of 2% it is 1%.  This means that the 5.5% coupon bond will price at 101.00 which means we can offer you a better Colorado Home Mortgage rate.  Normally about 5.75%, again based on today’s numbers.  This is a full .5% better then retail. 

So the real question here is why are we not seeing all of the savings we should be seeing in the market?  Well the market has just come off of inflationary reports and inflation is very bad news for Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  These numbers did come in as expected, but lenders will typically wait a few days to make sure that the inflation risk has jumped out of the Colorado Home Mortgage market.  Instead of pricing in 1% which is typical they currently have priced in about 1.25%.  This should find its way out of the market the next few days.  Retail shops have it even worse with about 2.25% currently priced in.  We will continue have a FLOAT recommendation for Colorado Home Mortgage Rates.  All signs show that rates are getting better and we should continue to hold out until the market tells us something different.   As usual call me with any of your Colorado Home Mortgage questions.  Good Luck and Stay tuned

Colorado Home Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the economic data released on a regular basis.  The data released by a variety of reporting agencies indicate the direction and current status the economy is in.  These reports are not released everyday and from time to time we actually have a 3 or 4 day lull.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates have a hard time reacting to the lack of data, so in times of light reporting, Investors for Mortgage Backed Securities look to the Headlines for market moving information.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will be impacted by financial information coming from the stock market.  This information will be scrutinized by investors almost as much as the economic data itself.  Before I get into the headlines, Colorado Home Mortgage rates today saw an improvement from late last week.  We will be keeping our FLOAT recommendation at least for now.  So far everything in the MBS market is indicating improvements,  we may even see a mid day PRICE ALERT: for the better.  I have said many times that investors tend to over react and I believe that this took place last week.  Hopefully we did not have anyone locking in last week.  Those that waited will more then likely see thier risks pay off in lower Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  We will need to stay tuned to April 24th.  We will have the durable goods report coming out and though this report in itself does not make a big impact on the market, it will make its mark.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will feel the impact because of the lack of data currently seen in the market.  Durable goods will be the 1st big economic report in 7 days and Mortgage Backed Securities will certainly react to the data.  In the mean time here are some of the headlines currently making its way around the market:

Bank of America reported a Profit decline of 77%.  This Profit decline came in credit losses and write downs.  Normally this would be a good sign for Colorado Home Mortgage rates, but Bank of America represents a big part of the mortgage business, and confidence will be low.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will react neutral overall to this news.  Oil continues to trade at its highest price point ever.  This price point causes some concern for Mortgage Backed Securities, because it signals bad inflationary pressures.  These inflationary pressures cause bonds to be devalued which in return causes Colorado Home Mortgage rates to rise. Finally, we are seeing more analyst and economist predicting that future GDP reports will show that we are heading into a recession “Wow that’s a surprise”  The number of experts reporting this data has increased over the last few months and these numbers represent a similar trend reported in the 2001 recession.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will respond very well to recessionary pressures.  These pressures will come out in the economic data being reported.  We have our next GDP report on April 30^th.  April 30^th will be a big day and so far preliminary information indicates that the reporting will come in lower then expected, which in return will give Colorado Home Mortgage rates the help it needs.  So we are back to my initial recommendation which is to FLOAT your Colorado Home Mortgage rate for now.  Call me with questions, if you have more time to read go to www.coloradohomemortgageloan.net/news with more information.  

We have a Colorado Home Loan Price Alert for the better.  Looks like the lemmings on Wall Street are starting to come to their senses.  I Still recommend a Colorado Home Loan FLOAT, but stay tuned to the stock market for any other big corporate reports.  So far Colorado Home Loan rates have made up everything lost from yesterday making the two day combine margin actually higher then what was quoted on Wednesday.  Colorado Home Loan rates do appear to be worse then Wednesday which means that lenders have the Colorado Home Loan Programs priced to high.  We expect lenders to get back in line by next week.  Stay tuned and call with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

Looking at the Colorado Online Mortgage rate sheets being released today, it has become clear that Locking today would be locking at a high point.  Colorado Online Mortgage rates are at a 4 week high and today’s Stock market activity has not helped at all.  You can find out more about that at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news for now we will focus on what is in store on the economic calender.  The Mortgage Backed Securities market will be at full alert come April 30th when the Federal Reserve meets and the Gross Domestic Product reports.  These two events will certainly drive Colorado Online Mortgage rates in one direction or another.  Until then the Economic Calender appears to be short on reports.  The only other real market moving report to be released before then will be the Durable Goods report due out on April 24th.  Colorado Online Mortgage Rates will be heavily influenced by information coming out of the stock market over the next few days.  So far the Stock market has released a variety of Corporate Profit reports that have shown to be hurtful to the bond market.  The news has also contributed to the increases being felt on Colorado Online Mortgage rates.  Looking at investor released rate sheets this morning it is clear to me that they are not pricing their Colorado Online Mortgage programs for people to lock today.  This could be due to the uncertainty in the market, but it also has to do with the number of loans they have locked in place already.  They have projected a light volume day and their Colorado Online Mortgage Pricing shows that.  Rates started a bit higher today then they should have based on the market yesterday, however if the market has another late day rebound,  pricing should improve later today.  In the mean time I will Continue to recommend FLOATING.  I make that recommendation with caution.  We are entering into a time that is tough to predict what investors will do.   The normal predictability that takes place based on economic data has not shown itself in the market.  I believe that this gives us a much bigger window of improvement, but in the past when this has happened, Colorado Online Mortgage Rates jumped about .75% before relief was felt.  Though Colorado Online Mortgage rates did drop again, people who were closing during that 4 week window faced some tough decisions on where their rate finally finished off at.  If next weeks durable goods report send Colorado Online Mortgage rates up,April will be a tough month as it relates to Colorado Online Mortgage rates.  Stay tunedand call me with questions.

The questions investors are asking themselves over the next few days will be whether to invest in Stocks or Bonds.  When the Stock market looks to be a better investment money will be pulled out of bonds and into stocks.  Likewise, when bonds look better investors will pull from stocks and invest into bonds.  Colorado Online Mortgage rates will rise and fall based on the volume demanded from the Mortgage Backed Securities market.  So far Colorado Online Mortgage rates have dipped a bit on positive corporate earning reported by CAT and Honeywell.  Both companies represent large industrial and manufacturing sectors in the market and both indicating higher then expected profit margins.  Investors quickly took the news and pulled money out of the Mortgage Backed Securities market and began investing in the Stock Market.  Colorado Online Mortgage rates will see slight increases today as a result.  CitiGroup reported a 5.1 Billion dollar loss in the 1Q but that too was seen as a positive sign in the market.  So far the S & P has gained about 200 points and there are no signs of this slowing down.  Report after report on corporate profits appear to be in line with expectations and the market looks as if we have the beginings of a recovery in place.  Who knows maybe I will be a believer soon, but right now it still is not enough.  Corporate profits though regulated heavily now are still reported from the companies prospective and the economic indicators are still signalling tough times ahead.  Colorado Online Mortgage rates however will be impacted daily on what the market releases.  This also means that if things get re-reported later or something drastic changes the current market sentiment felt between investors, Colorado Online Mortgage rates will not see those changes until it actually happens.  We are still at a 5 week high on interest rates.  This has me concerned that the end may not be in sight soon, based on what the market has been doing this week:-(  It will take some bad economic data to move Colorado Online Mortgage rates down and if Citi group reporting a 5.1 Billion dollar 1Q loss has investors excited nothing I can say will change what direction Colorado Online Mortgage rates will go.  I will stay the course and say FLOATING remains my recommendation, but the last time I saw this type of trend happen we had 3 1/2 weeks of Colorado Online Mortgage rate increases and the overall rates jumped up about .75% during this time.  My gut still says rates will improve, but the signs are say we may have a long way to go before that happens.  LOCKING will be up to you, and it may be a good choice if you are closing in the next two weeks.  If you are a risk taker and rates do indeed drop again in the next 3 to 4 weeks then Floating will be your option.  I would probably monitor things very closely next week, the real story will be told 4/30  when GDP is reported and the Federal Reserve Meets.  We will see a small preview on 4/24 when the Durable Goods report is released.  The Durable Goods report may be the exact time when things start to fall into place.  If the report sends Colorado Online Mortgage rates up we will probably be in for a tough couple of weeks.  Good luck and call me if you have questions.

The last couple of days have been ugly for those trying to lock their Colorado Home Loan.  We saw Colorado Home Loan rates increase about .375% - .500% depending on the lender in just two days.  If you look at the previous couple days blogs you will see why rates increased, but I will also give you a quick recap.  Inflation will always play havoc on Colorado Home Loan rates.  After the Producer Price Index report came out on Tuesday, investors began to sell off their Mortgage Backed Securities in great numbers.  The supply obviously reduced the price, which in return increased Colorado Home Loan rates.  On Wednesday the Consumer Price Index came out and it read as expected.  Normally this would be good news for Mortgage Backed Securities, but news in the stock market created another sell off of Mortgage Backed Securities.  Reports of several key companies indicating better then expected Profit earnings, sent hope of economic recovery.  This allowed investor the confidence needed to invest in the stock market and in return funnelled monies out of the Mortgage Backed Securities Market.  Due to this Colorado Home Loan rates again loss some ground yesterday.  Today we have had three economic reports come out.  These reports in themselves are not market movers, but together will have impacts on the market.  Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, and Philadelphia Fed Index all came in at or below expectations.  The numbers show that we still have some major work to do to get out of the current economic down turn and should start seeing rates improve again.  Its scary how quickly rates can move up, but over the last year we have seen much of the rate increases drop back down over time.  The key is to lock in at the right time.  I always say that 5.5% is the bench mark Colorado Home Loan rate to lock and so far that philosophy has done well for clients locking at that rate.  FLOAT remains my recommendations and hopefully over the next few days rates will start coming back in line.  Today the Mortgage Backed Securities market appears to be flat probably recovering from the selling frenzy that took place over the last couple of days.  A Flat market is a good market because the bleeding has stop at least for now.  We may see a small dip before we see a recovery, mainly due to volumn in the market.  Light volumn typically drops pricing in the Mortgage Backed Securities market.  Colorado Home Loan rates will begin its recovery as soon as we have any reports stimulating volumn in the market again.  We had a couple of good days for the stock market, but we are not out of the woods when if comes to negative economic reports and the moment that information hits the market again will be the moment we see Colorado Home Loan rates drop.   We have very light reporting on economic indicators over the next 2 weeks.  April 30th will be a big day for Colorado Home Loan rates so we will need to keep a close eye on what reports will be released.  For now unless we have big positive news for the stock market things should start recovering.  A good way to monitor what Colorado Home Loan rates are doing is to see whether the stock market is up or down.  Odds are if stocks are down Interest rates are down.  If stocks are up the interest rates will be up as well.  With very little economic news to report the biggest driver will be the stock market.  Colorado Home Loan rate recommendation remains as FLOAT. Call me anytime if you have questions, until then best of luck and God Bless.

Daniel

It will be an interesting day in the Mortgage Backed Securities Market.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will certainly go up today.  The question will be how much will they go up? and What should we expect from tomorrows inflationary reports?  If you take look at the numbers, Core PPI came in right as expected which is producers costs excluding the volatile Food and Energy component.  This by itself would have actually been good for Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  The negative influence right now in the Mortgage Backed Securities market comes from PPI numbers that have food and energy included.  It is no surprise that this came in negative.  The problem is that it came in much higher then expected sending  negative inflationary signs though the market.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will certainly go up.  This will be a tough week for those that don’t understand to forces that move the market.  People may want to LOCK in fear that rates will not stop going up.  Today will more then likely be a preview of whats to come for tomorrow.  It will be a tough couple of days.  I am still recommending a FLOAT at this point.  It is a risk, but Colorado Home Mortgage rates this week may have you locking at a high point and that is never my intention for anyone.  Remember that 1/2% on a $200,000 loan translates to about $75 more a month and that is what you will be putting on the line if you Float your Colorado Home Mortgage rate and you end up locking at a higher rate.  At this point rates should go down again when reports start showing what the economy is doing as a whole.  Inflation was expected to be higher today, but the light at the end of the tunnel through all this was that inflation appeared to be right in line if you exclude energy.  I believe that rates should drop again towards the end of the week, but stay tuned and if you need to lock let me know and I will get you locked in.  Have a great day.

Retail sales numbers were released today and for the moment it appears that it has not impacted Colorado Home Mortgage rates for today.  The Retail Sales Index measures the total receipts of retail and food sales. Retail sales include durable and non-durable merchandise sold and services and taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. It is also important to keep an eye on the gas and food components, where changes in sales are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand.  So how does this impact Mortgage Backed Securities, and more importantly Colorado Home Mortgage Rates?  Simple, if and when the economy reports negative news, Colorado Home Mortgage Rates drop and Mortgage Backed Securities increases. 

Looking at the Market so far today Colorado Home Mortgage Rates have moved up and down slightly over the last two hours, but have not made any major movements.  In fact Colorado Home Mortgage Rates should have started the day a little better because of where the market closed on Friday.  The real show stopper this week will be the two inflationary reports due out Tuesday and Wednesday.  This report will report on what inflation rates were for the month of March.  Its hard to give an unbiased opinion on what I think the inflationary numbers will be, because I have been reading nothing but negative press on what experts expect.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will most definitely be impacted one way or another in the next two days, the question is which way?  I believe that inflation will report right in line with expectations.  This will be influenced heavily by the cost of energy.  If you are a risk taker FLOATING will pay off, if you just want to sleep well tonight, then LOCKING will be recommended today.  I am implementing a high risk FLOAT recommendation.  Colorado Home Mortgage Rates will see some nice improvements if and when inflationary numbers report in line.  Now keep in mind we have two inflation reports to be concerned about this week and even if the numbers come in good for Colorado Home Mortgage rates tomorrow, the market will not react until Wednesdays reports.  If you want to know the rational for why I believe inflationary numbers will report in line with expectations read my blog on inflation posted a few days ago.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates should remain in line today in anticipation of whats to come.  I will keep you posted.  God bless and have a wonderful day:-)