Colorado Home Mortgage Banking

Colorado Home Mortgage rates appear to be off to a rough start this morning.  The Mortgage Backed Securities market has lost some ground over the weekend and Colorado Home Mortgage rates are expected to be a bit higher today.  We implemented a lock recommendation last week and for those that locked your Colorado Home Mortgage rate it now appears that you made the right choice.  The market will be light this week which means the headlines will dictate the direction demanded on Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  Tomorrow we expect pending home sale figures to be reported and so far the consensus has indicated another decrease in home sales for the 2Q for 2008.  This is a drastic decreased expectation from what was reported last month.  If the report comes in better then expected Colorado Home Mortgage rates will jump up a bit.  Because there is such a huge difference in the Consensus and what was reported last I believe that the report will beat expectation.  So we will continue to hold up on our Lock recommendation.  Some Lenders may have put to much cushion on the Colorado Home Mortgage rate sheets in anticipation of a bad week.  Luckily we have access to all the lenders and we will ensure you do not get high with that Colorado Home Mortgage rate premium. 

The Pending Home Sales index measures housing contract activity. It is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. A signed contract is not counted as a sale until the transaction closes. Modeling for the new index looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years.  This is important for Colorado Home Mortgage rates because It is designed to be a leading indicator of housing activity. Greater housing sector activity indicates a stronger economy, which is generally negative for Colorado Home Mortgage markets.  We are expecting a -3% increase versus a 6.3% increase reported last time the report came out.  Because of the 10% gap from one month to the other and the fact that we are still in our selling season, I believe the report is a bit to pessimistic.  This will result in an increase of Colorado Home Mortgage rates by late afternoon tomorrow, if investors have not already priced that in today.   The only other reports to look for this week will be the trade deficit report and the consumer sentiment.  Both reports are expected to come in poorly. 

It is interesting that with the dismal outlook being portrayed in the market that Colorado Home Mortgage rates appear to be higher then they should.  I have talked about the economic conditions many times in previous blogs, but we need to remember that this is not new territory for the Colorado Home Mortgage market.  We have seen this before.  We are experiencing many pressures in the inflation category due to the oil price shock, and we are experiencing a bad economic turnaround.  Both these indicators took place in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.  What makes this go around so much better is that our Federal Reserve members are better prepared to handle the economic stimulus needed to get us back on track.  If we did not have the current pressure from oil causing un-needed inflation fears in the market, we would probably see Colorado Home Mortgage rates in the low 5% range on the 30 year fixed.   However inflation is devaluing the bonds and investors are demanding a higher return to buy them.  This is the biggest reason we see Colorado Home Mortgage rates higher then they need to be. 

We can’t blame ourselves for the higher oil prices; it is simply demand that has caused oil to increase to its highest levels ever.  The demand for oil is not even a domestic issue it is a global issue.  We are experiencing inflationary pressures that are out of our control.  The pressure is a direct result of global demand not domestic demand.  So the only way we can combat the issues is to understand where the pressures are coming from. The U.S is no longer the market movers in the global market place.  Because we are not the market movers we need to work on understanding and forecasting based on the pressures experienced in global activities versus domestic activities.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will probably not see the low 5% range for some time to come.  Instead we need to prepare ourselves for the up and down cycles that will result from the continued global demand.  Like the U.S. other countries like China will slow down demand as prices go up.  We need to identify the cycles demanded in the global market to understand what the pricing cycles that makes its way into the domestic bond markets.  Once that is identified, we can then begin to accurately predict Colorado Home Mortgage rate trends.  In the meantime I will continue to monitor both the domestic and global influencers that affect our bonds markets before making any real Lock/Float recommendation. 

Please contact me with your Colorado Home Mortgage questions.  I have also included a piece on foreclosures that you can read at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news.

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage rates seem to be getting some relief today after the release of the Consumer Price index.  CPI measures real inflation, which has been the hot topic for Colorado Home Mortgage rates over the last 5 days.  Inflation fears have contributed about a .75% rate increase with Colorado Home Mortgage programs over the last week.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates have not been this high since August of last year, making the relief well over due.  It appears that the Mortgage Backed Securities market will trade higher today and over the weekend allowing some much needed relief in Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  How much relief will depend on how aggressive investors get, but the feeling right now is that the relief will come slowly.  We have one more inflationary report to be released for the month and that is Producer Price Index which will come out on Tuesday.  We will need to keep a close eye on PPI next week, if PPI reports in line with expectations, next week could be a good week for Colorado Home Mortgage rates.

Our biggest enemy right now was our best friend 6 months ago, and that is the Federal Reserve.  The Federal Reserve utilizes many techniques to move the market in the direction it chooses.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates are influenced by these actions.  The Federal Reserve has utilized a scare tactic over the last 10 days or so, by openly discussing serious concerns with inflation.  These speeches created some strong movement out of long term investments, which caused Colorado Home Mortgage rates to go up.  What investors now have to do is determine how much of the information being expressed by the Federal Reserve is fluff and how much is real.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates hate inflation and the most credible source for getting the information on inflation to us is the Federal Reserve.  So why question their intentions right?  Well the Federal Reserve is also responsible for lowering the risk of inflation.  By generating fear about inflation the Federal Reserve can slow down Economic progression.  This is one technique they use to reduce inflationary pressures.  I am not sure if that is the right approach, but it does work.  Tuesday will give investors the last piece of the puzzle for the month on inflation.  If Producers Price Index comes in as expected we should see next weeks Colorado Home Mortgage rates drop.

Colorado Home Mortgage rates are at a high point for the year, and it has become tougher and tougher to recommend a FLOAT or LOCK recommendation.  Based on today’s information and looking at where inflation came in at, I believe that FLOATING your loan is a good risk.  Investors need a little time to price back out of the safety zone currently seen in their Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  This means we have room to improve.  The economic news has also been good for Colorado Home Mortgage rates making a FLOAT recommendation that much easier to make.  Stay tuned for PPI that will come out on Tuesday.  We will be hoping that PPI reports at or below expectations.  We will give you the information as soon as we know.  In the mean time let me help you with your Colorado Home Mortgage questions and feel free to call me directly.  If you have time, check out www.coloradohomemortgageloan.net/news  I will be reporting on all the economic reports from today and their impacts.  All you really need to know though, is that the reports favored Colorado Home Mortgage Rate improvements and seem to be carrying enough momentum to get us through the weekend.  Until we write again have a safe and fun weekend.

Daniel 

Colorado Mortgage Rates are determined by the Mortgage Backed Securities market.  Most people refer to this market as the bond market.  The bond market competes with the equities market to attract demand from investors.  Colorado Mortgage Rates are determined by the demand shown in the bond market.  The relationship between Mortgage Backed Securities pricing and Colorado Mortgage Rates follow an inverse pattern.  The best way to look at the inverse relationship is to watch the price of bonds, when the price of bonds goes up, Colorado Mortgage Rates will fall.  This will also hold true as bond prices drop, Colorado Mortgage Rates will naturally go up.  This trend does not change for any reason, so what we have to look for in order to properly determine Colorado Mortgage Rates, are the factors that increase or decrease demand in the bond market.

Demand in the bond market will normally be determined by investor’s adversity towards risk.  Investors are inherently conservative and look for every opportunity to eliminate risk from their portfolios.  Colorado Mortgage Rates also use risk factors when determining its final rate which we will elaborate later.  Right now we will simply focus on the risk associated with investments.  Bonds are considered safe and sometimes risk free investments.  Because the risk is low the returns are also low.  Equities (Stocks) on the other hand will have high risk associated with them, but in order to compensate for the risk, stocks will need to offer a much better return.  Investors look at both markets and in times of bad economic progression bonds become a safer investment.  In times of good economic progression Stocks become a good investment.  Colorado Mortgage Rates will typically come in lower during low economic growth periods and likewise Colorado Mortgage Rates will suffer during good economic growth periods.  So if you simply want to get a feel of where Colorado Mortgage Rates are in relation to historical data look at what is going on in the economy.

What is going on in the economy is heavily monitored by investors when determining how aggressive they will be in buying and selling bonds.  Economic data reports are the primary driver of investor behavior in the markets.  These economic reports come out in a verity of formats.  Some that you may be familiar with are: GDP, Consumer Sentiment, Cost Price Index, and Jobless Claims just to name a few.  Colorado Mortgage Rates react immediately on the data released by these economic reports.  The economic standings are dictated by what is said in the data.  If the data says we are in an economic downward spiral investors quickly jump out of the equities market and reinvest in the bond market.  The increased buy demand drives to price of Mortgage Backed Securities up which drives Colorado Mortgage Rates down.  Obviously, Colorado Mortgage Rates have the opposite movement when the economic data released is better then expected.  This is how core Colorado Mortgage Rates are determined. 

The last component impacting Colorado Mortgage Rates are the loans risk parameters.  As I stated before investors demand a higher return when they take on more risk.  Colorado Mortgage Rates are no different in the returns required for the risk taken.  Colorado Mortgage Rates start off at a base risk factor.  Normally clients with a 720 or higher credit score, Full Documentation can be verified for their income, and a minimum of 20% down payment has been made will qualify under the least amount of risk.  These type of loans will certainly carry a low risk premium and will offer the best Colorado Mortgage Rates available.  Once the loan begins to add risk factors like 100% financing or credit scores below 720, Colorado Mortgage Rates begin to go up.  This is the most basic way to explain how Colorado Mortgage Rates are determined, and I would encourage you to contact us directly with any other Colorado Mortgage Rates questions you might have. 

Colorado Home Mortgage rates improved today on the release of several poor performing economic data reports.  These reports reminded investors that we are still not out of the woods yet.  Our economic situation seems, at least for the moment, uncertain about immediate recovery.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates always do better during uncertainty.  We had a rough week last week as it relates to Colorado Home Mortgage rates and much of what was lost last week has found its way back into the market this week.  We will continue to support a LOCK recommendation around 5.75%.  Today 5.875% would be a no cost lock; where as 5.75% would still carry a small cost.  Let’s give it another day or so before making any quick decisions, it appears that the data coming out still has some room to improve Colorado Home Mortgage rates over the next day or so.  We will maintain a FLOAT recommendation through the weekend.  I will certainly advise a LOCK if something big happens, but tomorrow’s economic data will more then likely reflect a similar negative message being communicated by the reports today.

Go to www.coloradohomemortgageloan.net/news to get the details on the specifics of each report released today, for those who just want the basics this is the site to keep book-marked.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will be impacted by tomorrow’s economic releases.  Housing starts and Consumer Sentiment are both on the clock tomorrow and both reports are expected to come in negative.  Consumer Sentiment is a no brainer, as a whole people still believe we are in a tough situation and whether it is political, economical or local the problems still remain the same.  People do not have confidence that our economy is in a state of recover and instead believe that tougher times are ahead.  This will be reflected in the story told in the Consumer Sentiment data released in the morning.  Consumer Sentiment readings that come in low normally indicates low consumer spending.  When this happens a safer investment portfolio makes sense which will increase the demand for Mortgage Backed Securities.  Long story short it will allow Colorado Home Mortgage rates to drop for a third straight dayJ  We do have one negative possibility that could move Colorado Home Mortgage rates back up a bit and we know them in the investment world as profit seekers (read my other blog) they could be the red herring on any large movements expected in rates in the next 24 hours. 

Finally, we have the housing starts report, which normally this time of year begins to gain momentum.  Builders typically build more in the summer however the problem here is supply.  Right now with so many homes on the market adding additional supply is not profitable, which signals that this report like the previous 7 housing starts reports should come in low.  The question is did the experts predict the housing starts report appropriately.  We will see.  The Mortgage Backed Securities market did close today with some nice gains and more importantly a consistent gain throughout the day.  This should have been reflected in some decent improvements for Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  I checked out several investors today and they are still a little conservative in their rate sheets so we have not seen all the Colorado Home Mortgage price improvements that I would have expected, which certainly means that FLOATING through the weekend should be a safe bet. 

The Last thing I will say is be careful not to allow yourself to be to heavily influenced by what you hear.  Look at the simple data and make your decisions on what you think the market is doing.  I am also easily influenced by what other people are saying.  I do not come up with all of this on my own, I read a lot to get this information out and the sources I read the information from will always push their personal opinions.  Heck my personal opinion comes out in every message I write.  I have had a strong stance that our economy appears to be in a recession and I have stuck to this for some time, but over the last three weeks we have had a few reports come out that seem to tell a different story.  Of course every expert on the planet has to have something to say about it and when you hear it enough you begin to believe it.  I bought into this as well, however today’s data came in pretty bad and unfortunately we will not know how close to a recession we are in until we are almost out of it.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates go up and down based on investor impulse and opinions on where the economy is heading and what the economy has to day today.  When they feel things are getting better for the economy, Colorado Home Mortgage rates suffer.  Likewise, when we fall on bad Economic times Colorado Home Mortgage rates drop.  Right now our economy is in a state where Colorado Home Mortgage rates should be at an all time low, but the simple fact is we have way too much data to sort through, which allows everyone to have an opinion.  Stick to the basic, and call me with your Colorado Home Mortgage questions.

Daniel