Colorado Home Mortgage: Does the Global Market affect rates?
Monday, July 7th, 2008Colorado Home Mortgage rates appear to be off to a rough start this morning. The Mortgage Backed Securities market has lost some ground over the weekend and Colorado Home Mortgage rates are expected to be a bit higher today. We implemented a lock recommendation last week and for those that locked your Colorado Home Mortgage rate it now appears that you made the right choice. The market will be light this week which means the headlines will dictate the direction demanded on Colorado Home Mortgage rates. Tomorrow we expect pending home sale figures to be reported and so far the consensus has indicated another decrease in home sales for the 2Q for 2008. This is a drastic decreased expectation from what was reported last month. If the report comes in better then expected Colorado Home Mortgage rates will jump up a bit. Because there is such a huge difference in the Consensus and what was reported last I believe that the report will beat expectation. So we will continue to hold up on our Lock recommendation. Some Lenders may have put to much cushion on the Colorado Home Mortgage rate sheets in anticipation of a bad week. Luckily we have access to all the lenders and we will ensure you do not get high with that Colorado Home Mortgage rate premium.
The Pending Home Sales index measures housing contract activity. It is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. A signed contract is not counted as a sale until the transaction closes. Modeling for the new index looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. This is important for Colorado Home Mortgage rates because It is designed to be a leading indicator of housing activity. Greater housing sector activity indicates a stronger economy, which is generally negative for Colorado Home Mortgage markets. We are expecting a -3% increase versus a 6.3% increase reported last time the report came out. Because of the 10% gap from one month to the other and the fact that we are still in our selling season, I believe the report is a bit to pessimistic. This will result in an increase of Colorado Home Mortgage rates by late afternoon tomorrow, if investors have not already priced that in today. The only other reports to look for this week will be the trade deficit report and the consumer sentiment. Both reports are expected to come in poorly.
It is interesting that with the dismal outlook being portrayed in the market that Colorado Home Mortgage rates appear to be higher then they should. I have talked about the economic conditions many times in previous blogs, but we need to remember that this is not new territory for the Colorado Home Mortgage market. We have seen this before. We are experiencing many pressures in the inflation category due to the oil price shock, and we are experiencing a bad economic turnaround. Both these indicators took place in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. What makes this go around so much better is that our Federal Reserve members are better prepared to handle the economic stimulus needed to get us back on track. If we did not have the current pressure from oil causing un-needed inflation fears in the market, we would probably see Colorado Home Mortgage rates in the low 5% range on the 30 year fixed. However inflation is devaluing the bonds and investors are demanding a higher return to buy them. This is the biggest reason we see Colorado Home Mortgage rates higher then they need to be.
We can’t blame ourselves for the higher oil prices; it is simply demand that has caused oil to increase to its highest levels ever. The demand for oil is not even a domestic issue it is a global issue. We are experiencing inflationary pressures that are out of our control. The pressure is a direct result of global demand not domestic demand. So the only way we can combat the issues is to understand where the pressures are coming from. The U.S is no longer the market movers in the global market place. Because we are not the market movers we need to work on understanding and forecasting based on the pressures experienced in global activities versus domestic activities. Colorado Home Mortgage rates will probably not see the low 5% range for some time to come. Instead we need to prepare ourselves for the up and down cycles that will result from the continued global demand. Like the U.S. other countries like China will slow down demand as prices go up. We need to identify the cycles demanded in the global market to understand what the pricing cycles that makes its way into the domestic bond markets. Once that is identified, we can then begin to accurately predict Colorado Home Mortgage rate trends. In the meantime I will continue to monitor both the domestic and global influencers that affect our bonds markets before making any real Lock/Float recommendation.
Please contact me with your Colorado Home Mortgage questions. I have also included a piece on foreclosures that you can read at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news.
Daniel





